Our President’s Comments

10/21/19

Internal Markets Commentary

The State of the Markets

  • The UK government tried to have another meaningful vote today but that the speaker didn’t allow it as it was be essentially the same bill as Saturday’s which is not technically allowed. Tomorrow, where the government is expected to put the program motion with the timetable of events to try to pass the deal. This could be the first obstacle. Then when they try to bring the legislation through, the amendments will come thick and fast with the main ones likely being a confirmatory referendum on the deal and one on membership of the customs union. It’s not clear that the numbers are there for either but the second one is more likely, might get momentum, and would be something the current government is highly unlikely to accept which in turn might encourage more to vote for it. As such if this goes through we expect the bill to be withdrawn and we’ll be back at square one, albeit with a no-deal Brexit being much less likely than it was two weeks ago.

10/18/19

Internal Markets Commentary

The State of the Markets

  • Although tomorrow’s U.K. Parliamentary vote is a monumental occasion for the U.K. and Europe, for the pound itself is not that important, since all the major UK parties now support either a second referendum which is unlikely to have no deal on the ballot paper (Liberal Democrats, Labor, SNP), or a concrete deal with the EU (Conservatives).
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