Our President’s Comments

01/13/20

Internal Markets Commentary

Economic Data as the Year Begins

  • The main highlights for the week ahead will be the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China (Wednesday). US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said over the weekend that an English-language version of the agreement will be released this week. We’ll also see the start of US earnings season with a number of banks reporting. On Tuesday we’ll hear from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Then on Wednesday we’ll get Bank of America, UnitedHealth Group, Goldman Sachs, US Bancorp and BlackRock. Finally on Thursday, we’ll hear from Morgan Stanley and BNY Mellon. In terms of data CPI (Tuesday), retail sales (Thursday), and consumer confidence (Friday) are the main highlights in the US. In China we have trade data (Tuesday) and Q4 GDP/retail sales/industrial production (Friday). So we’ll have quite a good idea about momentum in the Chinese economy by the end of the week. In Europe industrial production numbers (Tuesday), and the flash CPI (Friday) are the highlights. The UK also sees CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Friday).

01/10/20

Internal Markets Commentary

A bit of everything as the first full week of the year comes to a close

  • The U.S. labor market ended the year with less momentum, as payroll gains cooled by more than forecast and wages rose at the weakest annual pace since 2018, even as unemployment held at a half-century low of 3.5%.. Nonfarm payrolls rose 145,000 in December, the least since May, after a downwardly revised 256,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday. That compares with the median estimate of 160,000 in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. Average hourly earnings climbed a below-forecast 2.9% from a year earlier, the first sub-3% reading since July 2018.
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