Our President’s Comments

02/25/20

Internal Markets Commentary

The Coronavirus Effect

  • The contagiousness of the virus is similar to flu (maybe a touch worse) but with the mortality rate anywhere between 2 and 20 times as high. Flu has a mortality rate of 0.2% with COVID-19 cited at anywhere between 0.4 and 4. The often quoted 2.5-3% mortality rate might be overstated due to a likely understatement of cases as many people in China with relatively mild symptoms may not have been tested. New information is that we now know people are contagious before they show symptoms. This makes containment very difficult. As such the reports over the weekend of the surge in cases in Italy are a potential game changer. It now is unlikely that Italy will be the only sizeable European outbreak. Given the nature of the way governments will balance the risk/rewards, this could easily lead to widespread travel restrictions a

02/21/20

Internal Markets Commentary

The State of the Markets

  • After a brief but sizable risk off move yesterday that saw the S&P 500 move from positive territory to down more than a percent in the last half hour of European trading, today’s flash PMIs will be an important measure of how activity is shaping up in February in the heat of the Coronavirus crisis and shut downs.
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